ESPN's Buster Olney just wrapped up his annual positional rankings series for 2026, ranking the top 10 players at every position from starting pitchers to designated hitters. It's one of the most comprehensive expert assessments in baseball, and it gives us something extremely valuable: a framework to compare human scouting consensus against what our AI projection models are spitting out for the 2026 season. The overlap is fascinating, and the disagreements are where the real betting value lives.
If you're new to using rankings to inform your futures bets, this is a great primer. We'll break down the biggest takeaways from Olney's rankings, show you where they align with AI win total projections, and highlight the spots where bettors can find edges.
The Catcher Revolution: Cal Raleigh's Historic 60-Homer Season Changes Everything
Let's start with the position that generated the most buzz. Olney's catcher rankings are headlined by Cal Raleigh, who did something no catcher has ever done: hit 60 home runs in a single season. Raleigh's 2025 campaign with the Seattle Mariners was genuinely historic, slashing .247/.359/.589 with 60 homers, 125 RBI and 110 runs scored across 159 games.
Cal Raleigh
To put this in context, Raleigh broke Salvador Perez's catcher record of 48 home runs, surpassed Mickey Mantle's switch-hitter record of 54, and topped Ken Griffey Jr.'s Mariners franchise record of 56. He became just the seventh player in MLB history to reach 60 homers in a season.
For new bettors, here's why this matters for futures: Raleigh's presence makes the Mariners' win total over/under much more interesting. When you have a generational offensive catcher in a pitcher-friendly home park, the team's floor is significantly higher. Our AI models have been consistently bullish on Seattle's over in early projections.
Corner Outfield: Where the Dodgers' Dominance Gets Even More Extreme
Olney's corner outfield rankings are topped by Aaron Judge, who has been absolutely ridiculous over the past two seasons: 20.5 WAR, a .326/.457/.695 slash line, 111 home runs and an OPS+ of 220. Juan Soto, entering his age-27 season with 244 career home runs and a league-leading 127 walks in 2025, slots in right behind him.
But here's where it gets interesting for the futures market. The Dodgers added Kyle Tucker this offseason on a four-year, $240 million deal, and Tucker's presence further deepens what was already the most loaded lineup in baseball. The Dodgers' win total is set at 102.5 to 103.5, a full 12 wins above the next closest team. That's not just the highest in baseball, it's the highest preseason win total in roughly two decades.
What Our AI Model Says
The Dodgers' concentration of elite talent creates a compounding effect that traditional models often undervalue. With Ohtani (ranked No. 1 DH), Tucker, and a rotation featuring Yamamoto and potentially a Cy Young-caliber Ohtani on the mound, the AI model projects the Dodgers' actual win probability distribution is skewed higher than the 102.5 line suggests. The model sees a roughly 55% chance they clear 103 wins.
The Shortstop Tier: Bobby Witt Jr. Is the Foundation of the Royals' Future
Olney's shortstop rankings feature Bobby Witt Jr. at or near the very top, and the numbers back it up completely. Witt's 2025 season was remarkable: .295/.351/.501, 184 hits and 47 doubles (both leading all of MLB), 21 home runs, 34 stolen bases and 7.1 WAR (8.0 fWAR). He won the Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, and AL Platinum Glove awards.
Bobby Witt Jr.
After a 10.5 fWAR season in 2024 and 8.0 fWAR in 2025, Witt is establishing himself as a perennial MVP candidate. He became the first player in MLB history to hit 20 home runs and steal 30 bases in each of his first four seasons. For fantasy players and bettors new to projections, this is the kind of player who single-handedly elevates a team's win expectancy by 5-6 wins per season.
Our AI model factors in player aging curves, and Witt is still only entering his prime. The model projects him as a 7+ WAR player for the next three seasons, which makes the Royals' win total an interesting watch depending on what happens with the rest of their roster.
Starting Pitchers: The Skubal vs. Skenes Debate and What It Means for Bettors
The biggest debate in Olney's rankings centers on starting pitchers. Is Tarik Skubal or Paul Skenes the best pitcher in baseball? Olney notes that evaluators are genuinely split. Skenes posted an ERA+ of 217 in 2025, the highest single-season mark among starters in years. Skubal counters with back-to-back Cy Young awards and a 32.2% strikeout rate.
For futures bettors, here's the practical takeaway: Skenes is the NL Cy Young favorite at +300, while Skubal likely leads the AL. The "value" in the starting pitcher market might actually be further down the board. Yoshinobu Yamamoto sits at +550 for the NL Cy Young, and Shohei Ohtani is way out at +3000 as he returns to full-time pitching. If either outperforms expectations, those are the tickets that pay.
The DH Position: Where Ohtani Stands Alone
Olney's designated hitter rankings put Ohtani at No. 1, and it's not particularly close. Over the past two seasons, Ohtani has scored 280 runs, the most in all of baseball. Over his last three seasons, he's clubbed 153 home runs with an OPS+ of 184. In 2025 alone, he hit 55 home runs, drove in 102 runs, and won his fourth career MVP award, all four of them unanimous, the only player in history to achieve that.
What makes Ohtani's DH ranking unique for AI modeling is that he's also a pitcher. Our model treats him as essentially 1.5 players for the Dodgers, contributing both offensive and pitching WAR. That dual contribution is one of the reasons the AI model is slightly more bullish on the Dodgers' win total than the consensus market. Traditional projection systems often struggle to account for true two-way players because the historical sample size is essentially zero before Ohtani.
How to Use These Rankings for Your 2026 Futures Bets
If you're new to using player rankings for betting, here's the simple framework. When a team has multiple players ranked in the top 5 at their position, it's a strong indicator that the team's win total over might have value. Conversely, when a team has zero players in the top 10 at any position, the under on their win total becomes more attractive.
Based on Olney's 2026 rankings, the Dodgers dominate the positional lists with Ohtani (No. 1 DH, plus pitching), Tucker (top corner outfielder), and Yamamoto (top starting pitcher group). The Yankees have Judge (No. 1 corner outfielder), while the Mets boast Soto. The Mariners have Raleigh (No. 1 catcher) anchoring their lineup.
Beginner Tip: Understanding Win Totals
A "win total" is a season-long bet on whether a team will win more (over) or fewer (under) games than the number set by oddsmakers. For example, the Dodgers at 102.5 means you bet on whether they'll win 103+ games (over) or 102 or fewer (under). The presence of elite, top-ranked players like Ohtani and Tucker makes the over more attractive because those players contribute the most wins above replacement.
The Bottom Line for Bettors and Fantasy Players
ESPN's positional rankings are built on expert consensus and scouting evaluation. Our AI models are built on statistical projections and historical aging curves. When both agree, you have strong conviction. When they disagree, you have an edge worth investigating.
The biggest area of agreement right now: the Dodgers are loaded. The biggest area of potential disagreement: whether teams like the Royals, built around one transcendent player in Bobby Witt Jr., can outperform their modest projections. And the biggest surprise from the rankings, Cal Raleigh's historic 60-homer season putting Seattle's catcher in an entirely different tier, is something the betting market is still absorbing.
Keep an eye on these positional rankings as spring training progresses. Player health, roster battles, and early performance can shift win total odds before Opening Day, and that's when the best futures value tends to appear. For more on how AI models approach MLB projections, check out our guide to AI-powered sports betting. We'll be running our AI models against the latest data weekly, so check back for updates as the picture clarifies.