ChatGPT in the 2025 AI contest

Every wager ChatGPT submitted during our 2025 AI handicapping contest was logged the morning it was made, graded against the final score, and left here untouched, the 8-1 days and the 1-4 days alike.98 percent ROI, and the daily log below shows exactly how streaky the road to that number was. The detailed section covers July 29 through August 21, 2025: 63 graded picks running 31-30-2 over that stretch, which is what a long-term winner often looks like up close.

Two entries below deserve special attention before you scroll. On August 16, ChatGPT went 8-1 for plus 9.31 units, its best single day in this log. Two days earlier, on August 14, it went 1-4 for minus 12.32 units, its worst. Same model, same process, a 21.63-unit swing across 48 hours. If you want the methodology that generated these picks, our model methodology page documents the identical-prompt protocol, and the 2026 AI Showdown shows what happened when this same model returned to defend the framework the following spring.

August 21, 2025

August 20, 2025

August 16, 2025

August 15, 2025

August 14, 2025

August 13, 2025

August 12, 2025

August 11, 2025

August 10, 2025

August 10 MLB Best Bets

Game

Pick

Line

Units

Reasoning

KC Royals @ MIN Twins

Twins ML

-135

2

Stronger offense at home, bullpen edge, favorable park and weather

KC Royals @ MIN Twins

Over 8.0 Runs (Full Game)

8.0

1

Both teams trending over recently, hitter-friendly park and weather

CIN Reds @ PIT Pirates

Reds ML

-107

2

Better starting pitching, bullpen advantage, pitcher-friendly park

CIN Reds @ PIT Pirates

Under 8.0 Runs (Full Game)

8.0

1

Pitchers limit hard contact, park suppresses runs

HOU Astros @ NYY Yankees

Yankees First 5 Innings ML

-185

2

Fried dominant starter, bullpen support

HOU Astros @ NYY Yankees

Under 9 Runs (Full Game)

9.0

1

Fried's control and umpire strike zone trends

OAK Athletics @ BAL Orioles

Orioles ML

+110

2

Better bullpen, stronger offense at home

MIA Marlins @ ATL Braves

Braves ML

-127

2

Potent offense, elite starter, strong bullpen

LAA Angels @ DET Tigers

Tigers ML

-200

2

Home advantage, bullpen and offense edge

CLE Guardians @ CHW White Sox

White Sox ML

+122

1

ATS value, bullpen edge, home crowd advantage

NY Mets @ MIL Brewers

Brewers ML

-121

2

Strong bullpen, home team, better recent form

PHI Phillies @ TEX Rangers

Phillies ML

-145

2

Ace starter vs shaky opposition, bullpen advantage

WAS Nationals @ SF Giants

Giants ML

-130

1

Home field edge, solid bullpen and lineup

COL Rockies @ ARI Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks ML

-230

2

Proven starter vs rookie, strong home offense

BOS Red Sox @ SD Padres

Padres ML

-132

1

Home pitcher advantage, stronger bullpen

        

August 9, 2025

3 Unit Plays

Astros ML (-108) , Valdez’s heavy contact management vs Gil’s inflated xwOBA (.390) and hard-hit profile. Houston bullpen is in solid form and Yankee bats have been cooler the last 10. Full-game ML lets the pen advantage play.

Guardians ML (-132) , Cantillo vs Burke is a mismatch on current form, CLE offense showing higher BB% and lower K% over last 30 days, plus big bullpen FIP edge.



2 Unit Plays

Giants ML (-157) , Whisenhunt’s changeup should neutralize some Nats RH bats, Oracle’s run suppression helps, and SF pen still above-average in leverage spots.

Cubs ML (-108) , Heat in Busch could bring some scoring, but Cards pen is shaky post-deadline. Cubs last 30-day wRC+ vs RHP is well above league average.



1 Unit Plays

Rays F5 ML (+111) , Boyle’s strikeout stuff plays early, Mariners have been hot but Logan Evans’ contact profile leaves room for hard contact. This is a small plus-money stab.

D-backs -1.5 RL (-110) , Massive starting pitching gap Blalock vs Eduardo Rodríguez, Arizona’s offense much stronger at home and COL’s road record abysmal.

        

August 8, 2025

Rank | Game | Bet | Units | Why It’s Standout

1 | Reds @ Pirates | Reds -1.5 RL (+159) | 3 | Major COVID: Reds as underdog RL value amid balanced ML and 8-run total

2 | Marlins @ Braves | Marlins ML (-113) | 2.5 | Public leans Braves, line undervalues Marlins edge

3 | Phillies @ Rangers | Under 7.5 Total (-112) | 2 | Tight pitching matchups, modest total at 7.5

4 | Mets @ Brewers | Mets ML (+104) | 1.5 | Sharp model favors Mets; close ML suggests value

5 | Reds @ Pirates | Over 8 Total (-110) | 1.5 | Simulated lean Over; forecast suggests 5-4 Pirates win

6 | Marlins @ Braves | Over 8 Total (-110) | 1 | Power-sensitive matchup with 8-run total

7 | Phillies @ Rangers | Phillies RL -1.5 (+135) | 1 | Heavy ML favorite (+55% implied win) in favorable matchup

8 | Reds @ Pirates | Reds ML (-108) | 1 | Balanced probability (~52%) and value as underdog

9 | Mets @ Brewers | Over 8 Total | 0.75 | Tight but expect scoring; implied value with high O/U

10 | Marlins @ Braves | Braves Team Total Under 4 (Speculative) | 0.5 | Contrarian if pitchers dominate early,small hedge

        

August 7, 2025

1. Reds @ Pirates , PICK: Pirates First 5 Innings -0.5 (-120)

Paul Skenes: 2.03 ERA, 2.21 xERA, 34.3% CSW, 27.2% K-BB%, 1.01 WHIP

CIN Offense: 27.2% K rate vs RHP, 85 wRC+, slumping .190 team AVG last 7

PNC Park: Slight pitcher-friendly park

Result of first matchup: Skenes shutout, 7.0 IP, 9 Ks

Why: Skenes is a monster. This is a mismatch. Singer is mediocre. Reds are striking out at an absurd clip and struggling to make solid contact. Skenes should cruise through 5 innings with a lead.

Confidence: ★★★★★ | Units: 3 Units (Best Bet)



2. White Sox @ Mariners , PICK: First 5 Innings UNDER 3.5 (-115)

Logan Gilbert: 3.21 ERA, 3.59 xERA, 1.07 WHIP, 31.1% CSW

CHW Offense vs RHP: Dead last in wRC+, ISO .113, OBP .282

SEA Offense vs RHP: Whiff-prone, also underachieving

T-Mobile Park: Roof closed = pitcher’s paradise

Why: Gilbert will dominate a historically bad lineup. Smith should survive 2-3 innings vs a whiff-heavy Mariners club. Game script screams 1-0 or 2-0 through 5.

Confidence: ★★★★☆ | Units: 2 Units



3. Marlins @ Braves , PICK: Marlins ML (-115)

Eury Pérez: 2.70 ERA, 2.91 xERA, 0.96 WHIP, elite swing-and-miss

Carrasco: 5.18 ERA, 5.88 xERA, 1.48 WHIP, washed

MIA Offense: 108 wRC+ last 30 vs RHP

ATL Offense: 90 wRC+ vs RHP, ice cold last 10 days

Why: Massive SP edge, better bullpen, hotter offense. Atlanta still getting respect on name-brand alone. Sharp $$ flipped line.

Confidence: ★★★★☆ | Units: 2 Units



4. Athletics @ Nationals , PICK: Over 9 (-110)

Both Starters: High xERA, WHIP over 1.35, HR-prone

OAK vs LHP: ISO .179, multiple HR threats

WAS vs LHP: OBP .322, low K%, aggressive contact

Why: Neither starter scares anyone. Both pens below average. Hitters' ballpark with ideal scoring conditions. Early steam from sharps. Could get messy late.

Confidence: ★★★½☆ | Units: 2 Units

        

August 6, 2025

CARD #1

# | Pick | Type | Odds | Units | Confidence

1 | Giants ML | Full Game | -150 | 3 Units | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

2 | Giants First 5 Innings -0.5 | F5 | -115 | 2 Units | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆

3 | Giants/Pirates UNDER 8.0 | Total | -110 | 2 Units | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆

4 | Blue Jays Team Total Over 6.5 | Alt Line | +110 | 2 Units | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆

5 | Rangers ML vs Yankees | Moneyline | -127 | 2 Units | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆

6 | Brewers +1.5 Run Line vs Braves | Spread | -145 | 1 Unit | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆

7 | Rockies/Blue Jays Over 12.5 | Alt Total | +125 | 1 Unit | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆

8 | Mariners First 5 Innings ML | F5 | -132 | 2 Units | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆

9 | Mets -1.5 Run Line vs Guardians | Spread | +125 | 1 Unit | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆



CARD #2

Rank | Game | Bet | Units

1 | Reds @ Pirates | Reds -1.5 RL (+159) | 3

2 | Marlins @ Braves | Marlins ML (-113) | 2.5

3 | Phillies @ Rangers | Under 7.5 Total (-112) | 2

4 | Mets @ Brewers | Mets ML (+104) | 1.5

5 | Reds @ Pirates | Over 8 Total (-110) | 1.5

6 | Marlins @ Braves | Over 8 Total (-110) | 1

7 | Phillies @ Rangers | Phillies RL -1.5 (+135) | 1

8 | Reds @ Pirates | Reds ML (-108) | 1

9 | Mets @ Brewers | Over 8 Total | 0.75

10 | Marlins @ Braves | Braves Team Total Under 4 (Speculative) | 0.5

        

August 5, 2025

1. San Francisco Giants ML (Full Game)

Line: -158 | Units: 2 | Confidence: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️☆ (4/5)

Rationale: Webb’s elite sinker/changeup matchup vs a PIT lineup that's last in run value vs both. Park and ump favor low scoring, SF bullpen elite. Consistent sharp backing and reverse line move.



2. Pirates Team Total UNDER 3.5 runs

Line: ~-110 | Units: 1 | Confidence: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️☆ (4/5)

Rationale: PIT is dead last vs sinker and changeups, Webb induces grounders at a 56.7% clip, PNC Park suppresses HRs, wind blowing in.



3. Giants 1st‑5 Innings ML

Line: +108 | Units: 1 | Confidence: ⭐️⭐️⭐️☆☆ (3/5)

Rationale: Webb strong in early frames; PIT starter Burrows volatile in early innings; public market heavy on SF moneyline supports value.



4. Houston Astros ML (Full Game)

Line: -112 | Units: 1 | Confidence: ⭐️⭐️⭐️☆☆ (3/5)

Rationale: Houston favored in Miami vs Cal Quantrill (4.82 ERA, low K-rate). Lean ML only due to lower confidence.



5. Under 8.5 Runs , Astros @ Marlins

Line: -109 to -111 | Units: 1 | Confidence: ⭐️⭐️⭐️☆☆ (3/5)

Rationale: Quantrill profile (low strikeout, high walk) suppressed by aggressive AST offense; Marlins bullpen strong; parks and totals suggest tight game.

        

August 4, 2025

Detroit Tigers F5 ML vs Twins | 1.5 units

Mize at home = elite splits, Woods Richardson road ERA over 5. Twins dead bats.



Milwaukee Brewers ML @ Braves | 2 units

Priester's xERA and ground ball rate match up well. Braves lineup striking out 28% last 7 games. Fedde is cooked (5.35 ERA, 44% hard hit).



Cleveland Guardians +154 @ Mets | 1 unit

Cecconi quietly solid (3.79 ERA), Mets overvalued with Manaea (1.93 ERA but xERA 3.68). Buy low.



Toronto / Colorado OVER 11.5 | 3 units

Coors. Gordon (4.85 ERA), Lauer has reverse splits and neutralizes nothing here. Ball's flying. Wind out to center.



Cardinals / Dodgers UNDER 8.0 | 2 units

Glasnow + Gray with strong CSW%. LAD last 10 games: 0-9-1 to the Over. Sharps hit this early.



Red Sox F5 ML vs Royals | 1.5 units

Bello has looked better recently, Royals regress hard vs RHP on the road. Falter due for blowup (4.11 xFIP).



Phillies TT Over 5.0 vs Orioles | 1 unit

Povich has a 5.46 ERA, but worse FIP/xERA. Philly hitting lefties (.288 AVG, .506 SLG vs LHP last 30 days).



Yankees / Rangers UNDER 8.0 | 1 unit

Fried vs Corbin LHP duel. Two offenses that slow down vs lefties, both pitchers with elite groundball %.

        

August 3, 2025

Units scale: 1U = Lean, 2U = Strong, 3U = Best Bet



1. Brewers -1.5 (+105) @ Nationals | 3U , Best bet of the day

Pitching Edge: Misiorowski - 2.73 ERA, 12.6 K/9, elite vertical movement, top 10% in CSW%. Nats: 28th in ISO vs RHP, .663 OPS L10. Bullpen Edge: MIL bullpen last 30 days - 2.98 ERA, 0.99 WHIP.



2. Dodgers -1.5 (-120) @ Rays | 3U

Yamamoto: 2.64 ERA, 3.01 xERA, 31.4% CSW%, 5.3% BB. Boyle: 4.50 ERA, high walk rate (13%), vulnerable to power. LAD offense: 2nd in MLB wRC+ vs RHP. Tampa: 2-8 L10, can’t hit elite velo.



3. Astros ML (-108) @ Red Sox | 2U

Valdez: 2.62 ERA, 57% GB rate, 3.03 FIP. Boston: 26th in wRC+ vs LHP. Houston: Top 6 in OPS vs RHP, better pen.



4. Mets F5 -0.5 (-115) vs Giants | 2U

Whisenhunt: 7.20 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 2.3 HR/9. Montas: Not great, but passable; at home: 3.91 ERA. Mets vs LHP: .804 OPS.



5. Pirates vs Rockies OVER 11.5 (-110) | 2U

Blalock: 7.20 ERA, terrible metrics (xERA 6.78, Barrel% 11%). Keller: Good, but Coors effect huge. Bullpens: Both bottom 6 in ERA.



6. Braves/Reds First 5 UNDER 4.5 (-110) | 2U

Cox (ATL): Top AAA prospect, deceptive stuff. Burns (CIN): 6.33 ERA but backed by CIN Under streak: 0-7-2 O/U last 9.



7. Cubs Team Total Over 4.5 (-110) vs Orioles | 1.5U

B. Young (BAL): 6.75 ERA, 1.67 WHIP. Rea: keeps Cubs in game. Cubs: 5.81 runs/game at home L10.



8. Rangers ML (-110) @ Mariners | 1.5U

deGrom: 2.56 ERA, 35% K%, .211 wOBA against. Evans (SEA): 4.22 ERA, 1.41 WHIP. Mariners: 2-8 O/U last 10 , bad offense.



9. Orioles/Cubs Over 8.5 (-110) | 1U

Both starters shaky, wind 8-10 MPH out to center.



10. White Sox @ Angels OVER 9.0 (-110) | 1U

Kochanowicz: MLB debut. Burke: 4.45 ERA, bad second time through. Both pens: Bottom 10 in WHIP.

        

August 2, 2025

1. Milwaukee Brewers ML (-177) , 3 Units

Sharp pitching edge and solid bullpen, plus Nationals struggling at home.

2. Tampa Bay Rays ML (+126) , 2 Units

Blake Snell dominates, Rays strong at home, good value on underdog.

3. Chicago Cubs ML (-197) , 2 Units

Boyd vs Sugano pitching mismatch, Cubs strong home form.

4. Atlanta Braves ML (-121) , 2 Units

Strider’s solid vs weak Reds home team.

5. Philadelphia Phillies ML (-104) , 1.5 Units

Wheeler strong, Phillies home

        

July 31, 2025

(No units listed, assumed 1 per pick)

1. Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline

2. Over 9.5 Runs (ATL @ CIN)

3. Under 7.5 Runs (TEX @ SEA)

        

July 30, 2025

1. Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (+101) | 3 Units

2. Game Total UNDER 7.5 Runs (CHC @ MIL) | -115 | 2.5 Units

3. Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-148) @ CHI White Sox | 2 Units

4. San Francisco Giants -1.5 Run Line (+100) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | 1.5 Units

5. Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-172) @ Cincinnati Reds | 1 Unit

        

July 29, 2025

1. Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 RL (-115) , 3 Units

2. New York Yankees -1.5 RL (-110) , 2 Units

3. Toronto Blue Jays ML (-115) (vs. BAL, Game 2) , 2 Units

4. San Francisco Giants ML (-150) , 2 Units

5. LAD @ CIN F5 UNDER 4.5 runs (-110) , 2 Units

6. Chicago White Sox Team Total UNDER 3.5 runs (-130) , 2 Units

7. LAD Team Total OVER 4.5 runs (-120) , 1 Unit

8. SEA @ OAK Full Game OVER 10.5 runs (-105) , 1 Unit

        

What The Logged Picks Reveal About ChatGPT's Betting Style

Aggregate the 63 graded picks in the detailed July 29 to August 21 window and a clear personality emerges. Totals were ChatGPT's favorite market, 29 of the 63 picks, but they hit at only a 48.3 percent clip in this stretch. Moneylines were its actual strength, 24 picks winning at 54.2 percent. Run lines were its leak: 10 picks, just 4 winners, including a Dodgers minus 1.5 at Coors Field ticket it bet twice, cashing at minus 189 and then losing the rematch at minus 224. The model kept going back to Colorado games in both directions, Dodgers run lines and Coors overs, and on the August 21 card, 0-4-1 for minus 9.88 units, both Coors plays lost together.

The unit sizing tells its own story. ChatGPT routinely staked 2 and 3 units on its favorite plays, which is why its swing days were so violent compared with a flat bettor's. A 1-4 day only costs minus 12.32 units when the losers carry heavy stakes, and an 8-1 day only pays plus 9.31 when the winners do.

The Sequel: What ChatGPT Did In 2026

History pages should not stop at the flattering chapter. When the contest resumed for 2026, ChatGPT posted the best win rate of the four returning flagship models, 53-49-7 through the May 15 leaderboard freeze, and still lost 16.17 units, because too many of those wins came at heavy favorite prices. The full context is on the 2026 AI Showdown page, and the lesson, that win rate means nothing without price discipline, now drives how our current cards are built: every play on a page like the July 19 daily card publishes its break-even percentage next to its stake. Our AI picks overview explains the confidence-tier system that grew out of exactly the streaks you just scrolled through, and if you use chatbots for your own handicapping, the AI prompting guide shows how to demand that same discipline in a single instruction.