2026 MLB Win Total Analysis
Complete breakdown of every team's win total with our betting recommendations. Lines updated after major offseason moves.
Lines Updated: December 31, 2025 - Reflects all offseason signings through today
AL East
Baltimore Orioles
90.5
OVER
Added Alonso, Helsley, Ward, Baz. Young core entering prime years. This team should push 95+ wins.
New York Yankees
88.5
LEAN UNDER
Lost Soto, didn't adequately replace him. Cole aging, bullpen questions. Still talented but not 89-win talented.
Toronto Blue Jays
87.5
OVER
Dylan Cease transforms this rotation. Vladdy committed, Bo healthy. This team is better than 2025. Best value in division.
Boston Red Sox
84.5
PASS
Bregman and Gray help, but young pitching needs to develop. Could go either way—wait for spring.
Tampa Bay Rays
78.5
LEAN OVER
Market always underestimates them. Same blueprint works. Competitive in most games they play.
AL Central
Cleveland Guardians
84.5
OVER
Rotation is elite. Clase dominates 9th. Young hitters taking steps. Best team in weak division.
Minnesota Twins
81.5
PASS
Correa back healthy, but rotation questions remain. Middle-of-road team, middle-of-road total.
Detroit Tigers
76.5
LEAN OVER
Young pitching emerging. Torkelson and Greene showing promise. Could surprise.
Kansas City Royals
74.5
PASS
Made playoffs in 2024 but regressed. Core getting older. Neutral.
Chicago White Sox
64.5
UNDER
Full rebuild. Traded everyone. This could be historically bad. Under 60 wins possible.
AL West
Houston Astros
87.5
PASS
Added Christian Walker but lost Bregman. Core aging, rotation questions after Valdez departure. Still dangerous but window closing.
Seattle Mariners
85.5
OVER
Best rotation in baseball. If offense improves even slightly, 90+ wins. High floor team.
Texas Rangers
83.5
LEAN UNDER
2023 champs but 2025 was rough. Aging, expensive roster. May underperform again.
Los Angeles Angels
72.5
PASS
Post-Ohtani era struggles continue. Trout aging. Nothing exciting here.
Oakland Athletics
61.5
PASS
Sacramento-bound and rebuilding. Not worth betting either way.
NL East
New York Mets
95.5
LEAN OVER
Soto transforms everything. Already strong team now has best hitter in baseball. 100 wins possible.
Philadelphia Phillies
92.5
PASS
Retained core, healthy Turner. But Mets addition creates brutal division. Fairly priced.
Atlanta Braves
88.5
OVER
Healthy Acuna changes everything. Rotation still elite. Market sleeping on them—best value in NL.
Washington Nationals
70.5
PASS
Rebuild progressing. Young talent but not ready yet.
Miami Marlins
66.5
UNDER
Traded everyone. New ownership, new direction. Sub-65 likely.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs
89.5
OVER
Bregman signing transforms lineup. Won 92 in 2025. +2 wins from hot corner upgrade. Division contender.
Milwaukee Brewers
81.5
PASS
Traded Williams, sold at deadline. Still competitive but declining.
St. Louis Cardinals
80.5
LEAN OVER
Added Devin Williams. Young hitters emerging. Could surprise.
Pittsburgh Pirates
73.5
PASS
Skenes is special but team isn't ready. Need more help around him.
Cincinnati Reds
76.5
PASS
Talented but inconsistent. Hard to trust either way.
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers
96.5
PASS
Back-to-back champs, still loaded. But 97 wins is asking a lot. Fairly priced.
Arizona Diamondbacks
88.5
OVER
Added Burnes to already strong rotation. Gallen-Burnes is elite 1-2 punch. 90+ very possible.
San Diego Padres
86.5
LEAN UNDER
Tough division, questions in rotation after Darvish. May struggle.
San Francisco Giants
78.5
LEAN OVER
Adames adds pop. Posey running things now. Could be frisky.
Colorado Rockies
62.5
UNDER
No pitching, no plan. Coors makes everything worse. Sub-60 possible.
Top Win Total Plays
Toronto Blue Jays OVER 87.5
Best Bet: OVER 87.5 (-110)
Dylan Cease is a true ace. This rotation with Gausman and Berrios is elite. Vladdy is committed, Bo is healthy. The Jays were better than their 2025 record suggested. 90 wins is very achievable.
Atlanta Braves OVER 88.5
Value Play: OVER 88.5 (-105)
Market sleeping on healthy Acuna. This is the same core that won 104 games with a healthy roster. Rotation still elite. 92+ wins if Acuna plays 140+ games.
Chicago White Sox UNDER 64.5
Strong Under: UNDER 64.5 (-115)
Full teardown rebuild. They traded everyone. This could be a historically bad team—think sub-55 wins. One of the safer unders on the board.