How to Bet MLB Futures After the Offseason's Biggest Signings
If you have been watching the MLB offseason unfold, you have seen some absolutely massive moves. Kyle Tucker just signed a record-breaking 4-year, $240 million deal with the Dodgers. Bo Bichette headed to the Mets for $126 million. Alex Bregman landed in Chicago. Pete Alonso is now an Oriole. Dylan Cease joined Toronto's rotation. These signings do not just reshape rosters. They reshape futures markets. And if you are new to betting MLB futures, understanding how and why lines move after big signings is one of the most valuable skills you can develop.
This guide breaks down exactly what happened to betting lines after these major moves, explains the mechanics behind line movement, and identifies where value might still exist in the 2026 futures markets. Whether you have never placed a futures bet or you are looking to sharpen your approach, this is your roadmap to navigating the post-signing landscape.
Why Do Lines Move After Signings?
Before diving into specific signings, let us cover the fundamentals. Sportsbooks set futures odds based on their projections of how many games each team will win and their probability of winning championships. When a team signs a star player, three things happen that force books to adjust their numbers.
First, the team's projected win total increases. A player like Kyle Tucker brings roughly 4-5 wins above replacement (WAR) to a roster. That is not a minor upgrade. It is the difference between a 95-win team and a 100-win team. Books adjust win totals accordingly.
Second, championship odds shift. If a team was already good and adds a star, their World Series probability rises. The Dodgers were already favorites before Tucker. Now they are heavy favorites at +250, meaning you would need to bet $100 to win $250.
Third, division and wild card odds ripple through the entire league. If the Dodgers get better, that affects the Padres, Diamondbacks, and Giants. If the Mets improve, the Phillies, Braves, and Marlins feel it. Books recalculate odds across multiple markets after every significant signing.
The Major Signings and Their Impact
Kyle Tucker to Dodgers
This is the deal that broke the market. Tucker signed with the defending back-to-back World Series champions on January 16th, 2026. His contract includes a $64 million signing bonus and $30 million in deferred money, bringing his present-day average annual value to $57.1 million, the highest in baseball history after factoring in deferrals. The Dodgers now have Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Kyle Tucker in the same lineup. Their projected payroll sits around $395 million, but with deferrals, their luxury tax number is more manageable. World Series odds shortened from +370 in late December to +250 after the signing. Their win total sits at 98.5-102.5 depending on the book.
Bo Bichette to Mets
The Mets landed the two-time All-Star shortstop on January 20th, 2026. Here is the fascinating part: Bichette will move to third base since Francisco Lindor owns shortstop in Queens. He has never played a professional game at third base. Despite that uncertainty, the Mets were aggressive, giving Bichette a contract that averages $42 million per year, tying for the sixth-highest AAV in baseball history. The deal includes opt-outs after the first and second years, meaning if Bichette excels, he could re-enter free agency as early as next winter. For bettors, the key question is whether the position change affects his production. His career .294 batting average, 111 home runs, and .806 OPS suggest the bat will play anywhere.
Alex Bregman to Cubs
The Cubs finally landed the third baseman they have pursued for two straight offseasons. Bregman brings three-time All-Star credentials, two World Series rings, a Gold Glove, and 102 playoff games of experience to a Cubs team that won 92 games in 2025 but needs that veteran leadership. The contract includes $70 million in deferrals, which marks a philosophical shift for Cubs ownership that had previously avoided deferred money. Those deferrals drop the present-day value to roughly $30-31 million AAV and keep Chicago just under the $244 million competitive balance tax threshold. Cubs win total projections moved from 87.5 to 88.5 after the signing.
Pete Alonso to Orioles
The Polar Bear headed to Baltimore in December 2025 after betting on himself with a one-year deal last year paid off. Alonso bounced back with a .272/.347/.524 slash line and 38 home runs in 2025 after a down 2024 campaign. His $31 million AAV is the highest ever given to a first baseman. The Orioles also added Ryan Helsley (2 years, $28 million), Taylor Ward, and Shane Baz this offseason, signaling they are finally ready to spend with their young core entering their prime years. Baltimore's win total sits around 84.5-85.5, which feels conservative given their talent base.
Dylan Cease to Blue Jays
Toronto made a statement signing the hard-throwing right-hander in December 2025, the largest free-agent contract in Blue Jays history. Cease led MLB in strikeouts from 2021-2025 with 1,106, though he also led in walks (361) and wild pitches (51) during that span. His 4.55 ERA in 2025 raised some eyebrows, but the Blue Jays are betting on his elite strikeout stuff and durability (165+ innings in each of the past five seasons) to anchor their rotation. Toronto's win total jumped from 85.5 to 91.5 after adding Cease and other pieces.
Current Win Totals Worth Watching
Now that we understand the signings, let us look at where the win total market stands and where value might exist.
| Team | Win Total | Key Signing | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 98.5-102.5 | Kyle Tucker ($240M) | Highest in MLB by 11+ wins |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 91.5 | Dylan Cease ($210M) | Up from 85.5 after aggressive offseason |
| Chicago Cubs | 88.5 | Alex Bregman ($175M) | Up from 87.5 after Bregman signing |
| Baltimore Orioles | 84.5-85.5 | Pete Alonso ($155M) | Could be undervalued given roster talent |
World Series Odds Breakdown
The Dodgers now sit at +250 to win their third consecutive World Series, making them the heaviest favorite in recent memory. To put that in perspective, you would need to bet $100 to win $250. In implied probability terms, that means oddsmakers give LA roughly a 28.6% chance of winning it all. That is remarkable when you consider there are 30 teams in baseball.
Below the Dodgers, the Blue Jays sit at +1500 after their strong offseason and World Series appearance in 2025. The Orioles improved from +3500 to +2500 after adding Alonso and other pieces. The Cubs moved to +1800 with Bregman in the fold.
Where Is the Value?
When one team becomes this dominant, contrarian bettors often look elsewhere. The Dodgers are priced like a sure thing, but baseball has more variance than any other major sport. Consider teams like the Orioles at +2500, who have a young, talented core that got significantly better this offseason but still have longer odds. The Cubs at +1800 with Bregman adding playoff experience could be intriguing. Sometimes the best futures value is not the favorite, but a team one tier below that improved substantially and is still getting attractive odds.
Division Odds: The Ripple Effect
Every major signing creates ripples throughout division odds markets. When Tucker signed with the Dodgers, the Padres, Diamondbacks, and Giants all became longer shots to win the NL West. When Bichette joined the Mets, it affected the Phillies' NL East odds.
For beginners, division odds can offer better value than World Series futures because you are betting on a smaller sample. Instead of asking "Can this team win 11 games in October against the best teams in baseball?" you are asking "Can this team win more games than 4-5 other teams over 162 games?" The latter is easier to predict.
The AL East is particularly fascinating. The Blue Jays, Orioles, and Yankees all improved this offseason. The Red Sox added Ranger Suarez. That division could produce three or four playoff teams, making division odds volatile. If you believe the Orioles are undervalued (and their 84.5 win total suggests some skepticism from books), their AL East odds might offer value compared to their World Series odds.
Timing Your Futures Bets
The offseason is not over. Max Fried, Cody Bellinger, and Teoscar Hernandez remain unsigned as of late January 2026. Where these players land will cause additional line movement. If you are considering futures bets, think about timing strategically.
Betting now locks in current odds, which could be advantageous if you believe a team is undervalued before they make another move. Alternatively, waiting for more clarity reduces uncertainty but might mean worse odds if the market moves in the direction you anticipated.
The Bottom Line for Futures Bettors
Understanding how major signings move betting lines is fundamental to successful futures betting. The Tucker signing demonstrated how a single player can shift an entire market. The Dodgers went from favorites to heavy favorites. Other teams' odds lengthened as a result. Win totals adjusted across multiple teams.
For beginners, here are the key takeaways from this offseason:
First, the best time to bet is often before news breaks, not after. If you anticipated Tucker to the Dodgers, betting their World Series odds at +370 before the signing was more valuable than +250 after.
Second, look for market overreactions. Did the Blue Jays' win total really need to move six games after Dylan Cease signed? Maybe, maybe not. That skepticism can lead to value bets.
Third, consider multiple market types. If you like the Orioles but their World Series odds feel too long, their AL East odds or win total OVER might offer better risk-reward.
Fourth, be patient with your capital. Futures markets evolve throughout the offseason and into spring training. New information constantly emerges that could improve or worsen your position.
The 2026 MLB season promises to be fascinating with these major roster overhauls. Whether you are betting on the Dodgers to three-peat or looking for value on a rising contender like the Orioles, understanding the mechanics behind line movement gives you a significant edge over casual bettors who just look at names and react emotionally.
Welcome to futures betting. Now you know how the game works.