2026 MLB Win Totals: Complete Betting Guide
The 2025-26 MLB offseason has been one of the most active in recent memory. Kyle Tucker to the Dodgers. Alex Bregman to the Cubs. Pete Alonso to the Orioles. Bo Bichette to the Mets. Every major signing shifts the win total landscape.
This guide breaks down every significant team's win total, the moves that affected it, and whether the over or under offers value heading into spring training.
Top Tier: The Contenders
The Dodgers' win total sits 11 games higher than any other team. Kyle Tucker's $240 million deal adds approximately 3 WAR to an already loaded roster. The lineup now features Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Tucker, Smith, and Muncy.
- Kyle Tucker: 4yr/$240M (opt-outs after years 2 and 3)
- Edwin Diaz: 3yr/$69M (elite closer acquisition)
LEAN OVER - Yes, 102.5 is astronomical. But this lineup has historically elite potential. Only concern is injury variance over 162 games.
The Yankees have been relatively quiet this offseason, which is concerning given the arms race in the AL East. They still have Judge, Soto, and a strong core, but the lack of rotation upgrades is notable.
LEAN UNDER - Toronto, Baltimore, and Boston all improved significantly. The Yankees standing pat while rivals load up is not a recipe for 94+ wins.
Coming off a World Series appearance, Toronto added Dylan Cease (7yr/$210M) to anchor the rotation. Their pitching staff is now formidable, though questions remain about offensive consistency.
- Dylan Cease: 7yr/$210M
LEAN OVER - World Series experience matters. Adding an ace to an already competitive roster gives them a floor of 88+ wins.
The Risers: Teams That Improved Most
The Orioles had baseball's best offseason. Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, Shane Baz, and Ryan Helsley address every weakness from their 75-87 disaster in 2025. That record was injury-driven, not talent-driven.
- Pete Alonso: 5yr/$155M (38 HR in 2025)
- Taylor Ward: Trade from Angels (36 HR in 2025)
- Shane Baz: Trade from Rays (rotation depth)
- Ryan Helsley: 2yr/$28M (elite closer)
STRONG OVER - Best value on the board. Alonso + Ward = 70+ combined HRs added to a young core that won 91 games in 2024 before injuries wrecked 2025.
Alex Bregman fills the massive hole at third base (0.0 WAR in 2025). The two-time World Series champion brings leadership, postseason experience, and consistent production to a lineup that needed a middle-of-the-order bat.
- Alex Bregman: 5yr/$175M ($70M deferred)
- Edward Cabrera: Trade from Miami (rotation upside)
LEAN OVER - Bregman projects for 3.5 WAR, replacing 0.0 WAR. That alone is worth 3-4 wins. If the rotation stays healthy, 92+ wins is achievable.
FanGraphs projects the Red Sox rotation as the best in baseball (18.3 WAR). Sonny Gray, Ranger Suárez, and Garrett Crochet form a postseason-caliber top three. Willson Contreras adds a needed bat.
- Ranger Suárez: 5yr/$130M (1.48 postseason ERA)
- Sonny Gray: Trade from Cardinals
- Willson Contreras: Trade from Cardinals (.257/.344/.447)
OVER - The rotation is legitimately elite. 88.5 feels low for a team with the best projected pitching staff in baseball.
Bo Bichette (3yr/$126M) and Marcus Semien (trade from Rangers) give the Mets an elite middle infield. Combined projected WAR of 7+. But the NL East is loaded, making 90+ wins a challenging target.
- Bo Bichette: 3yr/$126M
- Marcus Semien: Trade (sent Brandon Nimmo to Rangers)
PUSH/SLIGHT UNDER - Good team, brutal division. Dodgers, Phillies, Braves all project for 90+ wins. The Mets could win 92 and still finish third.
Value Plays: Under-the-Radar Opportunities
The Nolan Arenado trade adds a future Hall of Famer to a lineup that already features Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, and Gabriel Moreno. The Cardinals are paying $31M of Arenado's remaining salary.
- Nolan Arenado: Trade from Cardinals (Cardinals paying $31M)
LEAN OVER - Arenado's defense alone is worth a win. At 83.5, there's value if he returns to form.
Brandon Lowe (trade), Ryan O'Hearn (2yr/$29M), and Gregory Soto ($7.75M) are modest additions, but the young core continues to develop. This team could surprise if the pitching clicks.
SLIGHT OVER - Low expectations create value. If Paul Skenes takes a step forward, 80+ wins is possible.
Avoid: Teams to Fade
The Cardinals traded Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, and Sonny Gray. This is a full rebuild. The remaining roster lacks impact bats, and the farm system needs time to develop.
UNDER - Teardown mode. This team could lose 90+ games.
Quick Reference: Best Bets
BEST OVER: Baltimore Orioles 87.5-88.5
BEST UNDER: St. Louis Cardinals 75.5
BEST VALUE: Boston Red Sox OVER 88.5
STAY AWAY: Dodgers 102.5 (too high to bet confidently either way)
How to Bet Win Totals
For beginners, win total betting is one of the most straightforward futures markets. You are simply betting whether a team will win more (OVER) or fewer (UNDER) games than the posted number.
Key factors to consider:
- Offseason additions/subtractions (WAR changes)
- Injury history of key players
- Division strength (tougher divisions = harder to rack up wins)
- Schedule (interleague matchups, travel)
- Pythagorean win expectation from previous season
Win totals are set in late December/early January and move throughout the offseason as signings occur. The best value often exists immediately after a major signing before the market fully adjusts.
Sources: Vegas Insider, ESPN, FOX Sports, FanGraphs