When a new bettor first sees a full card of eight picks, the natural question is not which one wins, it is how the model decides what to bet and how much. Today is a great classroom, because the July 1 card is built around one headline matchup that teaches the whole idea. The Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies are throwing the two best pitchers on the entire schedule at each other, and that single fact shapes half the card. Walk through the eight plays one at a time and the logic becomes the most useful thing a beginner can learn: how to read a matchup, pick the right kind of bet, and match the size of the stake to the strength of the read.
First, What A Unit Actually Is
A unit is simply one standard-sized bet, usually about one percent of your total betting bankroll. If your bankroll is two hundred dollars, one unit is two dollars, and a 2-unit play is four. Thinking in units instead of dollars forces you to bet in proportion to your confidence and your bankroll, not your mood. A model that bets every play the same amount is admitting it cannot tell its strong reads from its weak ones. Today's card uses just two sizes, 2 units and 1.5 units, and learning why each play lands where it does is half the skill.
The Headline: Phillies-Pirates Under 8 (2 Units)
| Team | Probable starter | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Paul Skenes (RHP, 3.10 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 114 K) | 43-43 |
| Phillies | Zack Wheeler (RHP, 8-1, 2.03 ERA, 0.86 WHIP) | 48-38 |
A game total, or over/under, covers both teams combined. The under 8 wins if the Pirates and Phillies together score 8 runs or fewer. Why is the model confident here. Because both starting pitchers are elite, and elite pitching is the surest way to keep runs off the board. Paul Skenes carries a 3.10 ERA with 114 strikeouts, and Zack Wheeler answers with a sparkling 2.03 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP, which means he allows fewer than one baserunner per inning. When both pitchers are this good in the same game, runs are hard to come by for either side, and the total tends to stay low. This earns 2 units, near the top of the card, because it is the cleanest read on the board.
The one thing a beginner should notice is that a game total needs both offenses to stay quiet, so a single big inning from either team can push it over. That is the honest risk, and it is why even the headline play is 2 units and not more.
The Two Team Total Unders: A Sharper Way To Bet The Same Duel
The same Skenes-Wheeler matchup creates two more plays, and they teach an important beginner lesson: a team total is often a cleaner bet than a full game total. A team total covers the runs from one club only. The Pirates under 3.5 wins if Pittsburgh scores 3 runs or fewer, no matter what Philadelphia does, and the Phillies under 4.5 wins if Philadelphia scores 4 or fewer. Each one strips away half the risk, because you only have to be right about one lineup.
| Pick | Why the under | Stake |
|---|---|---|
| Pirates TT Under 3.5 (-115) | Pittsburgh bat faces Wheeler and his 0.86 WHIP | 2 units |
| Phillies TT Under 4.5 (-145) | Philadelphia bat faces Skenes and his 114 strikeouts | 1.5 units |
The Pirates under is the bigger of the two at 2 units, because facing a pitcher with a 0.86 WHIP is about as tough an assignment as a lineup gets. The Phillies under is a notch lighter at 1.5 units for two reasons a beginner should learn to spot: the number is higher, 4.5 instead of 3.5, so Philadelphia has more room to reach it, and the price is more expensive at -145, meaning you risk 145 to win 100. A higher number and a steeper price both pull the stake down, even when the read is good.
The Three Moneyline Favorites: Braves, Marlins And Rays (2 Units Each)
A moneyline is the simplest bet in baseball: you just pick who wins, no margin required. Three teams on today's card are favorites the model trusts, and each earns 2 units. Here is why, one at a time.
| Pick | The read | Records |
|---|---|---|
| Braves ML -129 | Atlanta's roster outclasses St. Louis in a game with even starting pitching | ATL 49-34 / STL 44-38 |
| Marlins ML -158 | Max Meyer (9-0, 2.60 ERA) faces Kyle Freeland (1-7, 7.50 ERA) at Coors Field | MIA 46-40 / COL 33-53 |
| Rays ML -131 | Shane McClanahan (3.30 ERA) beats Seth Lugo (4.18 ERA), and Tampa is the better club | TB 49-33 / KC 35-51 |
The Braves at -129 are a strong 49-34 team at home against a solid but lesser 44-38 Cardinals club, in a game where the two starters roughly cancel out, so the better overall roster is the edge. The Marlins at -158 have the widest pitching gap on the whole board: Max Meyer is unbeaten at 9-0 with a 2.60 ERA, while Colorado's Kyle Freeland is 1-7 with a rough 7.50 ERA. The honest catch, and a great lesson for beginners, is that this game is at Coors Field in Denver, the highest-scoring ballpark in baseball, where the thin mountain air makes the ball fly and no lead is ever safe. That is exactly why the model bets the Marlins to win the game, not the total, and keeps it to a disciplined 2 units. The Rays at -131 pair the best record on the slate, 49-33, with the better starter in McClanahan, against a struggling 35-51 Kansas City team.
The Last Two Unders: Reds-Brewers And The Royals Team Total (1.5 Units Each)
Two lighter plays round out the card, both leaning under and both sized at 1.5 units. In Milwaukee, Cincinnati's Andrew Abbott, at a 3.90 ERA, faces the Brewers' Shane Drohan and his sharp 3.12 ERA. Two decent arms and a quiet Cincinnati bat, at 39-45, make the Reds-Brewers under 9 a solid lean. The Royals team total under 4.5 comes straight from the Rays game: Kansas City has to score against McClanahan and his 1.22 WHIP, and a 35-51 offense rarely posts five runs against a pitcher that good. Both are 1.5-unit plays because each rides mostly on one input, which the model treats as a good read rather than a great one.
How To Read The Whole Card At A Glance
Line the eight plays up by stake and the model's thinking becomes a simple ladder. The 2-unit plays, the Phillies-Pirates under, the Pirates team total under, and the Braves, Marlins and Rays moneylines, are the reads where the strongest single input is clean and hard to argue with, whether that is two aces or a lopsided roster. The 1.5-unit plays, the Phillies team total under, the Reds-Brewers under and the Royals team total, are still good bets but each has one thing pulling against it, a steep price, a higher number, or a single point of failure. You never have to agree with the model to learn from it. Just match the size to the strength, every time.
What Beats This Card
Every play has a way to lose. The Phillies-Pirates under and the two team total unders all share one enemy, the single big inning, where one swing clears the number even against an ace. The Braves moneyline falls if St. Louis steals a close one. The Marlins moneyline is the boldest bet on the card, because Coors Field can turn any lead into a slugfest and erase Meyer's edge. The Rays moneyline and the Royals under both lose if Seth Lugo keeps Kansas City close at home. The Reds-Brewers under is most exposed to one loud inning from either side. Totals and team totals also depend on lineups, and lineups were not all confirmed at publication, so a late scratch can move the math. The model is favored on each play, but favored is a probability, not a promise, which is why the stakes stay between 1.5 and 2 units instead of all-in on any one.
Final Verdict
The July 1 AI card is an eight-pick lesson built around one marquee duel. The Phillies-Pirates under 8 and the Pirates team total under 3.5 lead at 2 units, selling the runs in a Skenes-Wheeler pitching showcase, while the Braves moneyline -129, Marlins moneyline -158 and Rays moneyline -131 round out the 2-unit group as the favorites with the clearest edges. The Phillies team total under 4.5, the Reds-Brewers under 9 and the Royals team total under 4.5 sit at 1.5 units apiece. Learn to match your stake to the strength of the read and you will think about a card the way the model does. For more beginner-friendly breakdowns, see the six-pick unit sizing guide, the over/under totals explainer, the latest AI card, and the full pick archive.