What a Team Total Is: Red Sox Under 3.5 on a Five Play Card
A team total only cares what one team scores. Here is Boston under 3.5, and the other four plays on the card.
Prices are the ones posted with each pick on Tuesday, September 22, 2026. They are a record of that moment, not a live quote.
| Play | Game | Price | Units to win | First pitch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees moneyline, Game 1 | vs Rays | -141 | 2 | 10:05 AM PT |
| Brewers and Phillies under 7.5 | at Philadelphia | -130 | 1.5 | 3:40 PM PT |
| Boston Red Sox team total under 3.5 | vs Guardians | -130 | 1 | 3:45 PM PT |
| Rays and Yankees under 6.5, Game 2 | at Yankee Stadium | -115 | 1.5 | 4:05 PM PT |
| Los Angeles Angels moneyline | at Athletics | -105 | 2 | 6:40 PM PT |
A moneyline asks who wins. A game total asks how many runs both teams score together. A team total asks a smaller question: how many runs does this one team score, win or lose. That is the 1 unit play on today's card. Boston under 3.5 at -130.
What has to happen
Boston under 3.5 wins if the Red Sox score 0, 1, 2, or 3 runs. It loses if they score 4 or more. The Guardians can win the game 2 to 1 and the under still cashes, because Boston only scored 1. The Guardians can lose 8 to 4 and the under still loses, because Boston scored 4. The final score of the other team never enters the grade.
The price is -130, 1 unit to win, so the ticket risks 1.30. You need this kind of outcome 56.52 percent of the time to break even.
Why this game
Payton Tolle is 9 and 6 with a 3.02 ERA and 166 strikeouts in 143 innings. Parker Messick, starting for Cleveland, is 12 and 9 with a 2.57 ERA and 186 strikeouts in 178.1 innings. Two starters in that range are the reason a team total under is even on the card.
Boston is 84 and 72 and has scored 3 runs or fewer in 7 of its 14 games from September 5 through September 20. That is exactly half. The price is asking for a little more than half. This is not a team that has forgotten how to score. It is a bet that tonight's two arms keep them at 3 or under.
The rest of the card
- Yankees Game 1 moneyline, -141, 2 units. Carlos Rodon is 6 and 3 with a 2.85 ERA. Nick Martinez is 15 and 4 with a 2.91 ERA in 173.1 innings. New York is 42 and 32 at home. Tampa Bay is 95 and 60. First pitch was 10:05 AM Pacific.
- Brewers and Phillies under 7.5, -130, 1.5 units. Zack Wheeler is 13 and 5 with a 2.99 ERA. Dustin May is 7 and 9 with a 4.61 ERA. Milwaukee is 98 and 58. Only 5 of Philadelphia's last 15 games, and 6 of Milwaukee's last 14, stayed under 7.5.
- Game 2 under 6.5, -115, 1.5 units. Max Fried has a 2.63 ERA. Drew Rasmussen has a 2.72 ERA. The Yankees were under 6.5 in only 2 of their last 14 games.
- Angels moneyline, -105, 2 units. Los Angeles has been outscored by 87 runs and is 26 and 49 on the road. The Athletics have been outscored by 223. Yusei Kikuchi has a 5.02 ERA. Brady Basso has a 4.50 ERA.
Five plays, 8 units to win, 9.90 units at risk. The team total is the smallest ticket. It is also the one that can win while your team loses.