In Plain English: What A Moneyline Is
A moneyline is a bet on who wins the game. Nothing else. Not by how much, not how many runs, just who wins.
A minus number is the favourite. -185 means you put up 185 to win 100. A plus number is the underdog. +160 means 100 wins you 160.
The size of the number is the sportsbook telling you how likely it thinks the win is. -185 is the book saying this team wins about 64.9 percent of the time. That figure is the same one you need to hit just to break even on the bet, which is why big favourites are harder to make money on than they feel.
The Puzzle On Tonight's Card
Los Angeles at Pittsburgh. Here are the two starting pitchers, straight from this season's records.
| Starter | ERA | Innings | WHIP | Walks | Strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walbert Ureña, Angels | 2.85 | 123.1 | 1.26 | 64 | 120 |
| Paul Skenes, Pirates | 3.97 | 149.2 | 1.16 | 44 | 179 |
The Angels pitcher has been more than a full run better per nine innings. And the Angels are the underdog at +164 while Pittsburgh is -185. If ERA decided prices, that would be backwards.
Why ERA Is Only A Quarter Of The Game
ERA is earned runs allowed per nine innings pitched. It is a good number and it only describes one of the four things that decide a baseball game.
The four are: your starter, their starter, your offense, their offense. Plus the bullpens, which is really a fifth. A starting pitcher who goes six innings has handed the ball over with a third of the game left.
So look at the other halves.
| Team | Record | Runs scored per game | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels | 54-88 | 4.06 | .678 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 70-73 | 4.85 | .733 |
OPS is on base plus slugging, a single number for how productive a lineup is. The Angels at .678 are the weakest offense playing today. Pittsburgh at .733 is well ahead of them, and the game is in Pittsburgh.
So the price is not saying Skenes is better than Ureña. It is saying the Pirates team is better than the Angels team, and one of those teams has to score to win.
The Number Hiding Inside That 2.85
There is a second thing worth learning here, and it is in the walks column.
64 walks in 123.1 innings. That is a walk every other inning, and it is why Ureña's WHIP is 1.26 despite a 2.85 ERA.
WHIP is walks plus hits per inning pitched. It measures traffic on the bases. A pitcher can have a low ERA and a high WHIP if he keeps escaping trouble, and escaping trouble is much less repeatable than avoiding it. Skenes has the higher ERA and the lower WHIP, plus 179 strikeouts to 120.
The lesson generalises well beyond tonight. When two ERAs disagree with two WHIPs, the WHIP is usually telling you more about what happens next.
Turning Any Price Into A Win Rate
This is the single most useful piece of arithmetic in betting and it takes ten seconds.
For a minus price: take the number, divide it by itself plus 100. So -185 becomes 185 divided by 285, which is 64.91 percent.
For a plus price: take 100, divide by the number plus 100. So +164 becomes 100 divided by 264, which is 37.88 percent.
Here is tonight's whole card run through that.
| Play | Price | Needs to win |
|---|---|---|
| Pirates ML | -185 | 64.91% |
| Brewers ML | -134 | 57.26% |
| Mariners -1 | -133 | 57.08% |
| Tigers/Guardians under 7 | -115 | 53.49% |
| Rockies/Cardinals over 11 | -110 | 52.38% |
| Yankees/Padres under 7 | -110 | 52.38% |
| Giants/Mets over 8 | +100 | 50.00% |
The Pirates ticket has to be right almost two times in three. The Giants and Mets over only has to be right half the time, because at +100 you win exactly what you put up. That is why an even money price is worth noticing when you see one.
The Money, In Plain Numbers
Minus prices here are quoted to win. A 1.5 unit play at -185 does not put 1.5 units at risk, it puts 2.775 there to collect 1.5.
| Play | To win | At risk |
|---|---|---|
| Pirates ML, -185 | 1.50 | 2.775 |
| Mariners -1, -133 | 2.00 | 2.660 |
| Brewers ML, -134 | 1.50 | 2.010 |
| Yankees/Padres under 7, -110 | 1.50 | 1.650 |
| Giants/Mets over 8, +100 | 1.50 | 1.500 |
| Tigers/Guardians under 7, -115 | 1.00 | 1.150 |
| Rockies/Cardinals over 11, -110 | 1.00 | 1.100 |
| Card | 10.00 | 12.845 |
Twelve point eight five units at risk to win ten. Divide 12.845 by 22.845 and the card needs 56.23 percent to break even.
Notice something in that table. The Pirates play is the smallest unit figure alongside two others at 1.5, and the largest amount of money on the table. That is what a big favourite does. It quietly becomes the biggest position on the card without ever looking like it.
One More Price Worth Understanding
Mariners -1 is not a moneyline and it is not the usual -1.5 run line either. It is a whole number, which means something specific: if Seattle wins by exactly one run, the bet is refunded rather than lost.
That matters more than it sounds. Of the 2,138 completed games this season, 583 finished by exactly one run. That is more than one game in four. On a -1.5 ticket every one of those is a loss. On a -1 ticket every one is your money back.
What To Take Away
A moneyline is a price on a whole team, not a price on a starting pitcher. When the number looks wrong, the answer is almost always in the half of the game you were not looking at, and tonight that half is a .678 OPS.
Two habits will do more for a beginner than any pick ever will. Convert every price into the win rate it needs before you take it. And when an ERA and a WHIP disagree, read the WHIP.