Published: January 26, 2026 | dailymlbpicks.com
Spring training is right around the corner, with pitchers and catchers reporting February 10-12, and the free agent market is still moving. This past week brought a wave of signings that might not generate the same headlines as the blockbuster deals we saw earlier this offseason, but they absolutely matter for futures bettors. If you're new to futures betting or just looking to get a handle on how late-January moves affect the board, let's walk through what happened and what it means for your money.
Before we break down the signings, here's a quick refresher for anyone who's newer to this. Futures betting is when you place a bet on something that will be decided at the end of the season, like which team will win the World Series, which player will win the MVP award, or whether a team will go over or under a certain number of wins. The odds on futures bets change throughout the offseason based on roster moves, injuries, and other developments. That's why paying attention to every signing, even the smaller ones, matters. Each move shifts the board just a little bit, and finding value before the market adjusts is how smart bettors make money.
This is the headliner of the late-January wave. Cody Bellinger has agreed to a 5-year, $162.5 million deal with the New York Yankees, and it immediately changes the complexion of the American League. Bellinger gives the Yankees a left-handed power bat with playoff experience, a Gold Glove caliber outfielder who can play center field, and a presence in the middle of the lineup that makes the entire batting order deeper.
For futures bettors, this is significant. The Yankees' World Series odds should tighten after this signing, meaning if you were thinking about betting on New York, the time to act was yesterday. Once the sportsbooks fully process this addition, you're going to be paying a higher price. The flip side is that teams competing with the Yankees in the AL East just saw their path get harder. If you're holding futures tickets on teams like the Orioles or Blue Jays, this signing adds another obstacle in their division.
The key thing to understand about big free agent signings and futures odds is that the market doesn't always adjust instantly. Sometimes it takes a day or two for the books to move their numbers. That gap is where value lives. If you see the Yankees' World Series price hasn't moved yet after the Bellinger news, that's worth a look.
This is the kind of signing that casual fans scroll past but futures bettors should note. Harrison Bader signed a 2-year, $20.5 million deal with the San Francisco Giants, and while it's not a blockbuster, it addresses a real need. Bader is an elite defensive center fielder who brings speed and baserunning value. For a Giants team trying to improve their roster construction, this is a smart, targeted addition.
The futures impact here is modest but real. Bader won't single-handedly move the Giants' win total, but he improves their defensive metrics in center field and gives them a legitimate leadoff option. In a tight NL West, marginal improvements add up. If you're looking at the Giants' over/under win total, this signing provides a small nudge toward the over. It's not a screaming bet on its own, but it's a data point you should factor into your analysis.
Beyond the two headline signings, several other deals closed this week that futures bettors should have on their radar:
Emilio Pagan returns to the Reds (2yr/$20M): Pagan coming back to Cincinnati stabilizes their bullpen. Bullpen depth is one of the most undervalued assets in futures betting because it directly impacts how many close games a team wins. A reliable reliever returning to a familiar clubhouse is a quietly important move for Cincinnati's win total outlook.
Miguel Rojas returns to the Dodgers (1yr/$5.5M): This is a veteran depth signing that reinforces what the Dodgers already are, which is the best team in baseball with a projected win total of 98.5. Rojas gives them a reliable defensive option who knows the organization and the clubhouse. For Dodgers futures bettors, this is just another layer of depth on an already loaded roster.
Victor Caratini to the Twins (2yr/$14M): Minnesota adds a veteran catcher who provides solid framing and game-calling ability. Catchers are underrated in their impact on pitching staff performance, and Caratini gives the Twins a steady hand behind the plate. If you're looking at Twins futures, this is a positive development for their pitching staff.
Taylor Rogers to the Twins (1yr/$2M): A low-cost bullpen addition that gives Minnesota another experienced left-handed arm in the pen. At just $2 million, this is essentially a no-risk move that could pay off significantly if Rogers performs anywhere near his career norms. The Twins are quietly building a deeper roster than most people realize.
UPDATE (January 31, 2026): Since this article was originally published, several major signings have occurred:
Bo Bichette → New York Mets (3yr/$126M): Bichette found his home in Queens, giving the Mets a true star at shortstop. His bat plays anywhere, and the Mets are now legitimate NL East contenders.
Max Fried → New York Yankees (8yr/$218M): The largest guarantee ever for a left-handed pitcher. The Yankees combined Fried with Bellinger to make a massive splash. Their World Series odds have shortened significantly.
Framber Valdez: The elite lefty groundball specialist remains the top pitcher on the market. Wherever he signs, expect a 2-3 win boost to that team's projection.
Nolan Arenado: The veteran third baseman brings leadership, defense, and a track record of production. His landing spot will matter for the team acquiring him.
If you're newer to futures betting, here's the practical takeaway. Every signing changes the odds, even slightly. The bettors who consistently find value are the ones who track these moves in real time and place their bets BEFORE the market adjusts. Here's a simple process you can follow:
First, when a signing breaks, check the sportsbook immediately. If the odds haven't moved yet, that's your window. Second, think about not just the team that made the signing but also the teams that didn't. If the Yankees got Bellinger, that means every other team that was competing for his services just lost out. Third, consider the cumulative effect. The Twins didn't make one big splash, but they added Caratini and Rogers in the same week. Those kinds of under-the-radar improvements compound over a full season.
The 2026 futures market has largely settled with most major free agents now signed. The Yankees made the biggest splash with both Bellinger and Max Fried, while the Mets landed Bo Bichette. With pitchers and catchers reporting February 10-12, the remaining free agents (Framber Valdez, Nolan Arenado) will need to sign soon. The window for pre-spring-training value is closing fast.