Sale at 2.18 ERA, Braves First 5 at -274
The Braves first 5 is more than half the risk on Wednesday's card. Here is why Sale is the ticket, and the other three plays.
Prices are the ones posted with each pick on Wednesday, September 23, 2026. They are a record of that moment, not a live quote.
| Play | Game | Price | Units to win | First pitch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals team total under 3.5 | at Detroit | -126 | 2 | 10:10 AM PT |
| New York Yankees moneyline | vs Rays | -157 | 1 | 4:05 PM PT |
| Atlanta Braves first 5 moneyline | vs Reds | -274 | 2 | 4:15 PM PT |
| Padres and Dodgers under 8.5 | at Los Angeles | -110 | 1 | 7:10 PM PT |
A first 5 moneyline grades the score after five innings, then ignores the rest of the game. That is the largest ticket on today's card. Atlanta in the first 5 at -274, 2 units to win.
What the price is asking
At -274 the break even rate is 73.26 percent. The ticket risks 5.48 units to win 2. It wins if Atlanta leads after five. A tie after five is a push on a moneyline. A Cincinnati lead after five is a loss, even if the Braves come back later.
Chris Sale is 14 and 9 with a 2.18 ERA, 190 strikeouts, and a 0.99 WHIP in 157 innings. Andrew Abbott, starting for Cincinnati, is 6 and 11 with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP in 159 innings. Atlanta is 92 and 65 with a run differential of plus 116, and 51 and 28 at home. Cincinnati is 73 and 84 and has been outscored by 159 runs.
The rest of the card
- Nationals team total under 3.5, -126, 2 units. Washington wins this bet by scoring 0, 1, 2, or 3 runs. Detroit can lose the game and the under still cashes. Framber Valdez is 10 and 11 with a 4.06 ERA in 168.2 innings. Richard Lovelady is the listed Nationals starter, 3 and 4 with a 3.86 ERA in 32.2 innings. In the last two games of this series Washington scored 2 and then 3. Since September 8 the Nationals scored 3 or fewer in 5 of 12 games. The price needs 55.75 percent. First pitch is 10:10 AM Pacific.
- Yankees moneyline, -157, 1 unit. Gerrit Cole is 9 and 9 with a 3.63 ERA, 123 strikeouts, and a 1.10 WHIP in 121.1 innings. Ian Seymour is 9 and 7 with a 4.38 ERA and 155 strikeouts in 127.1 innings. New York is 90 and 67, plus 134 in run differential, and 43 and 33 at home. Tampa Bay is 96 and 61 and 41 and 35 on the road. Break even is 61.09 percent. First pitch is 4:05 PM Pacific.
- Padres and Dodgers under 8.5, -110, 1 unit. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is 14 and 8 with a 2.51 ERA, 178 strikeouts, and a 0.87 WHIP in 179 innings. Robbie Ray is 13 and 8 with a 3.60 ERA in 162.1 innings. Los Angeles is 97 and 60 with a run differential of plus 200. San Diego is 87 and 70. Since September 8, Padres games stayed at 8 runs or fewer only 1 time in 13, so this is a pitcher price, not a Padres trend. The previous game in this series was 7 to 0. First pitch is 7:10 PM Pacific.
Four plays, 6 units to win, 10.67 units at risk. The first 5 ticket is 5.48 of that risk. These prices are the ones locked in the contest and written on the BetLegend sheet. The TrustMyRecord sportsbook tickets used the live board at lock: Nationals under 3.5 at -130, Yankees at -158, Braves first 5 at -280, and the under 8.5 still at -110.