The top free agent pitching market has settled. Framber Valdez signed with the Tigers (3yr/$115M), joining a rotation that already featured Tarik Skubal. Justin Verlander returned to Detroit as well (1yr/$13M), reuniting with former manager A.J. Hinch. Zac Gallen re-signed with the Diamondbacks (1yr/$22M) after declining his qualifying offer and testing the market. These signings have reshuffled the AL Central and NL West futures landscape. The Tigers emerged as the biggest winners, adding two quality arms to complement Skubal, making them legitimate AL Central contenders. Our AI projection models added 2-3 wins to Detroit's projected total after the Valdez signing alone.
How it played out in 2026
Updated September 18, 2026, with games through September 17. The signing analysis above is unchanged from March.
Six months later, the three deals look very different from each other.
| Pitcher | 2026 team | Starts | Record | ERA | Innings | Strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | Tigers | 30 | 10 and 11 | 4.06 | 168.2 | 129 |
| Zac Gallen | Diamondbacks | 20 | 3 and 9 | 6.22 | 101.1 | 62 |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 1 | 0 and 1 | 12.27 | 3.2 | 1 |
Valdez gave Detroit volume. He has taken the ball 30 times and thrown 168.2 innings, which is what the Tigers paid for. The ERA of 4.06 and a 1.36 WHIP are ordinary rather than front line, and he has struck out 129.
Verlander barely pitched. He made one start, lasted 3.2 innings, and went on the 15 day injured list on April 4 with left hip inflammation. Detroit moved him to the 60 day list on May 10 and sent him on a rehab assignment to Toledo on June 2. That April start is still his only big league appearance of the season.
Gallen's one year deal went badly. He was 3 and 9 with a 6.22 ERA over 20 starts, allowing 19 home runs, before Arizona placed him on the injured list with right elbow inflammation in July. He was activated from the 60 day list on September 9.
The futures angle aged poorly for Detroit. The Tigers are 72 and 81, third in the AL Central and six games back. Tarik Skubal, the ace this article described Valdez joining, missed time with loose bodies in his left elbow and was traded to the Dodgers on August 2 for Zyhir Hope, River Ryan and Brady Smith. Arizona is 80 and 73, third in the NL West and four games out of the last wild card spot.
The lesson for futures bettors is the one this market teaches every year: a signing adds a pitcher to a projection, but health decides whether he is in the rotation. Two of these three arms spent months on the injured list.